Incorporating ancillary data to refine anthropogenically modified overland flow paths     

Guy D. Duke  Stefan W. Kienzle  Dan L. Johnson  James M. Byrne 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1827-1843

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A comment on the article “A collinearity diagnosis of the GNSS geocenter determination” by P. Rebischung,Z. Altamimi,and T. Springer     

Michael Meindl  Gerhard Beutler  Daniela Thaller  Rolf Dach  Stefan Schaer  Adrian Jäggi 《Journal of Geodesy》2015,89(2):189-194

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Short-term forecasting of groundwater levels under conditions of mine-tailings recharge using wavelet ensemble neural network models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bahaa Khalil  Stefan Broda  Jan Adamowski  Bogdan Ozga-Zielinski  Amanda Donohoe 《Hydrogeology Journal》2015,23(1):121-141

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Multiple advances of Alpine glaciers into the Jura Mountains in the Northwestern Switzerland     

Angela Graf  Naki Akçar  Susan Ivy-Ochs  Stefan Strasky  Peter W. Kubik  Marcus Christl  Martin Burkhard  Rainer Wieler  Christian Schlüchter 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2015,108(2-3):225-238

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Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation     

Fahad Saeed  Stefan Hagemann  Sajjad Saeed  Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):21-38

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.  相似文献   

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?     

Isabel Hoyos  Astrid Baquero-Bernal  Stefan Hagemann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1269-1290

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR.  相似文献   

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Dim Coumou  Alexander Robinson  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):771-782

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

The earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α. Part I: description and performance for present-day conditions     

Marisa Montoya  Alexa Griesel  Anders Levermann  Juliette Mignot  Matthias Hofmann  Andrey Ganopolski  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(2-3):327-328

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The Younger Dryas and Holocene climate record of a stalagmite from Hölloch Cave (Bavarian Alps,Germany     

Georg Wurth  Stefan Niggemann  Detlev K. Richter  Augusto Mangini 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(3):291-298

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